Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: Matchup Analysis
Thematic analysis to supplement Think Shank’s preview episode before Game 6 of the Minnesota Timberwolves’ second round matchup against the reigning champion Denver Nuggets in the 2024 Western Conference playoffs.
Part I: Matchup Foundations
1) No team including Minnesota can "stop" Jokic & Denver's offensive machine; the most realistic vision is “normalizing” Denver’s scoring efficiency to a matchable rate
2) Minnesota is most suited to slowing Denver down due to its depth in length, athleticism, defensive instincts & skill, as well as tenacity (playoff defeat the prior season, public acknowledgement from Denver that Minnesota presented the most issues in its title run) meaning Minnesota can sustain defensive pressure throughout entire games
3) Minnesota must match or exceed Denver's (reduced) scoring efficiency across 48 minutes in order to win games
4) If 1-3 are all true, then the biggest determinant of victory for both teams lies on Denver’s side of the court (not Minnesota’s)
Part II: Thought Expansion
Jokic is going to score or create quality looks for teammates thanks to his scoring pressure near the rim. As outlined in his Game 5 postgame interview, Jokic’s mechanism to achieve this is simple: “If I’m 1-on-1, I will attack. If I’m doubled, I will pass.” The obvious root here is his incredible ability to overpower 1:1 matchups, ramming his broad body into the defender to create first contact and seize ground until close enough for his ultra-high finishing package in the short-mid range. As teams counter by sending doubles, Jokic can instantaneously process where it’s from, tap into his mental map of where teammates were moments prior as well as Denver’s heliocentric spacing model oriented around him, and use his height to whip spot-on passes to the teammate who the doubler came off of for a quality look at the rim. That supercomputer brain responsible for these split-second decisions is constantly analyzing opponent counters (e.g., where did the double come from?) as well for safe storage until future possessions where he can use them to his advantage. This manipulation of counters and ensuing dance is what predominantly comprises Jokic’s superpower (and perches him in all-time elite company).
Minnesota is fortified as best as realistically possible to thwart Jokic’s chokehold. This is largely thanks to none other than Karl Anthony-Towns, whose defense has been steadily mocked throughout his career, Minnesota can slow down Jokic’s bludgeoning stampede to the rim with sound 1:1 defense (or at least until Towns fouls out). At the same time, Rudy Gobert, Minnesota’s center who would typically matchup with Jokic, is free to cut off Aaron Gordon, Jokic’s favorite release valve who shadows the rim constantly for quick lobs and putbacks. If Jokic can’t get off a clean hook at the rim nor bait the help defender into leaving Gordon, Denver’s offensive chokehold is mitigated. Jokic is too talented to be fully stopped or contained, mind you, but most teams simply don’t have the personnel to employ a counter scheme like as effectively and consistently throughout regulation as Minnesota can.
That consistency is why I’m reductively labeling Minnesota’s end of the floor as a wash. The Timberwolves’ unique ability to slow down Jokic more than any team in the league means it’s defensively operating at the known limit of curbing Denver’s offensive potency.
So where does that leave us?
Everything, and I mean everything, hinges on the other end of the floor as a result in deciding which team comes out with a win. Slowing down Denver’s offensive machine amounts to nothing if Minnesota can't capitalize by keeping or exceeding Denver’s reduced scoring pace on the opposite end.
This is why the Timberwolves never stood a chance in Game 5 without Mike Conley - the Nuggets threw the most aggressive doubles of the series at Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony-Towns knowing their team was down its normal secondary "handler" to serve as their outlet once doubled (they can't always be each other's). Moreover, Denver doubled both of them on the catch to maximize pressure and minimize processing time to create more turnover opportunities. Having Conley play that role was largely the only thing preventing every team from gleefully choking out Minnesota’s offense by forcing the ball out of Edwards and Towns’ hands. Conley is able to not only punish doubles like these by cashing in outside shots at a high clip if helped off of, but also making the ultra-quick reads between shooting, driving, and facilitating to others (hence why we didn’t see aggressive doubles like this earlier in the series). Without him, the Timberwolves failed to generate enough quality looks out of harsh double teams to outpace Denver’s scoring even though it wasn’t able to execute at normal levels.
This is why the biggest battleground of the playoff series has been and will continue to be on Denver's end of the floor. It's also why the Timberwolves were doomed to lose Game 5 whether Jokic delivered the legacy game he did or not (probably).
If Minnesota can’t capitalize on slowing down Denver’s offensive machine scoring themselves at an equal or better rate, none of the defensive brilliance matters & Denver knows it. It's why Coach Finch and Rudy both had mentions of “our offense let down our defense tonight” in their Game 5 postgame interviews. They both attributed that conclusion to the lackluster secondary playmaking on display as well as costly outside misses by Alexander-Walker and Jaden McDaniels that Minnesota simply cannot afford given Denver’s incredible offensive efficiency even against their defense which ranked #1 in the regular season.
Part III: Summary
These are not the right questions to ask when faced with Denver: "How do you stop Jokic?" or "How do you 'solve' Denver’s offensive machine?"
This is: "How do you slow down Denver's offensive efficiency to a rate that you can match or exceed on the opposite end of the floor across 48 minutes?"
