Why the Mavericks Leveled Up From Losing Luka
Thought piece originally posted to X on Feb 3rd, 2025
The optics surrounding how Luka Doncic was traded are well documented — “tone deaf” surely fits the bill well — but what appears to be universally neglected is the actual basketball vision underlying it all.
Puppeteering Vegas owners or a deep state GM with Klutch ties are great content fodder, but are they really plausible considering we “caught” them straight away? Disappointing execution if so.
Nico Harrison’s frustratingly barren description of how the move would catapult the Mavericks into true blood contention should spike our basketball antennae tenfold. Below I outline why the figure should be closer to a hundred fold with repercussions extending well beyond a single team potentially elevating its playoff chances. There’s an excellent chance it comes to represent a significant milestone for the NBA’s evolution overall.
I believe that the Luka Doncic trade was primarily a market-driven one. This clashes with reported organizational concerns over his conditioning, availability, and impending supermax eligibility. Instead, I think Nico took note of the dynastic groundwork being laid in Oklahoma City (OKC), San Antonio (SAS), and Houston (HOU), decomposed their projected strengths and structures, and then mapped them onto a future Dallas ecosystem with Luka continuing to reign as king of the jungle. He didn’t love the forecast for his team’s success nor job security.
This line of thinking isn’t novel but the magnitude of talent exchange and direction of contention window are. Young superstars with early success have always been cherished at all costs because of the subliminal assumption that their efficacy (and thus their teams’) will either grow or sustain. This is empirically flawed — the environment evolves too and today at a faster than ever.
To the “Luka’s not even in his prime yet — he’ll only get better!” crowd, I would ask: will the defenses of OKC, HOU, and SAS not as well? Are you certain that Luka’s offensive edge over those teams will stay in place or even just continue to outweigh his availability and defensive costs?
Hypotheticals are never certain but one who follows the West closely can likely better understand Nico’s thought process given this framework of thought. Luka’s replacements tell the more sure fire tale, however, as they illuminate the new equilibrium being breached throughout the NBA.
Here are my thoughts and projections for the retooled Mavericks in a potential playoff matchup against OKC, the overwhelming finals favorite from the West. This matters because again my foundational premise is that Luka was traded for market-driven reasons i.e., to better compete for a near-term title. It then weaves into my presumed painting of Nico Harrison’s vision behind trading away Luka and what it suggests for where the overall league is heading. may reflect about the macro shift in the league.
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How losing Luka renders the Mavericks a better matchup against OKC
(a) OKC has precisely two centers which heightens foul (and thus rebounding, scoring, passive driving) susceptibility - similar story for Denver and Boston.
Dallas retained its bruising bigs squarely for this reason - standing alone in this way.
They lack traditional table setting yes, but overtaking Houston as the kings of junkyard ball (FTs, OREBs, SCPs, FBPs) gives them a unique advantage against teams with lacking front court depth. It's also a less volatile/shot dependent model positioned well for the playoffs.
I can guarantee you that Presti and Daigneault sat up in their chairs getting the news and images of Chet getting his 3rd foul partway into Q2 flashed before their eyes.
Sure, they saw OKC springing more turnovers with Luka gone too. But they're aware they have no contingency for foul trouble or passiveness from its bigs with AD averaging 40mpg. Their fast break conversion might dip too with AD's gravity sucking guys down low, PJ scooching up the wing as the 3, and more backcourt speed in general.
Sengun isn't adept at playing alongside his fellow big since Houston lionizes spacing for him, the rebound-dependent model will be blunted due to size, and (similar to Denver) its primary table setter will find himself tightroping between consistent production on one end and fleeing foul trouble & fatigue on the other.
Don't think I have to expand on Denver. Mavs should be the most formidable obstacle that Jokic-ball has ever faced. Nuggets should feel the most pressure to find a backup big per usual - Jokic will get gassed.
Memphis is their closest analog and worst matchup in the league, even more than Cleveland. Their depth of size means they can best counter Dallas' new superpowers and their chemistry/hunger likely overwhelms the Mavs.
Like Denver with Minnesota last year, I can see a world where teams can't overpower Dallas so long as the bracket breaks to avoid Memphis - lacing up against the Grizzlies in the R1 is probably Nico's nightmare scenario.
(b) connects to the overall vision part so I'll jump there.
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Nico Harrison’s vision behind the Luka Doncic trade
I think Nico's capitalizing on the 3pt rebellion (not revolution). Like when pop rap gave way to the soundcloud era - anything that works will be rebelled against eventually.
Top teams have fallen so head over heels for threes that they willingly sacrificed protecting the most efficient regions of the floor - the rim & stripe.
Boston's breakthrough wasn't amassing five great shooters, it was doing so while fortifying its own arc better than anyone else. From there, it's just math.
Right? Sort of.
Does Tatum get his first title if Denver holds onto its 20 point lead against the Timberwolves? If Jokic repeats, are we collectively salivating over kick out threes more, less, or the same as we do now?
You know you know the answer, but let me tell you what it means.
There's a flip side to cutting out the midrange that can be exploited. One that given enough talent and systemization can lead to just as elite, less volatile offense. It can even disqualify or jumble opponents rotationally too.
Start with the inarguable premise that creating quality threes has never been harder. It requires penetration, passing chops, team-level strategies (spacing, relocating, off-ball movement, etc.) and strong buy-in/trust. Mix in evolved defenses that have acclimated to thwart the assumed objective of generating open looks from the outside.
What if we suffocate your 3s close enough to Boston while supercharging our 2s with extra putbacks, FTs with more physicality, and FBPs with more athleticism?
Have you noticed the littering of young, massive bigs in the West (Edey, Clingan, Lively, Chet, Vic, Zubac, Missi etc.)? Most are clear defensive plays to get ahead of this rebellion spearheaded by Jokic.
Now what happens if we insert a massive, bruising, all-NBA two-way PF? One with more experience and skill than whichever center is yours at drawing fouls, angling for rebounds, and handling switches on the perimeter?
Suddenly the opposing PF becomes his team’s most critical player on the floor - success on both ends hinges on his box outs, physicality without fouling, and shot-making gravity to clear up space.
That's a lot of pressure on young guys like Chet, Jabari, & Jaren. Do Gordon, Randle, or KD have the motors if they play backup center too? Can Kawhi's knees stay bolted together?
Go ahead and pre-switch the post ups, AD's been playing center for 3 straight years with more prior to LA. No shot you switch normally as washed as you think Kyrie is.
Not sure we can even know how effective the two man game can become between the two superstars given their histories, not that it's getting any publicity anyway.
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Zooming out, I believe OKC and Boston are susceptible here. Both because of lacking 4-5 depth and OKC especially thanks to Chet's youth (experience & physical development) plus recent injury. The AD assignment after missing half the season could, maybe should, impact his mental.
Dort and Caruso are heavily neutralized since they can't physically guard AD, though they'll get caught on switches that OKC usually welcomes inevitably. This connects to my broader point about today's top teams constructing their defenses from the outside in primarily.
Which, I've got to say, worked about as well as theoretically possible against Luka last year. Dort's almost the ideal archetype for defending Luka - strong and immovable - similar to Jrue.
Luka's proven that length and quickness don't phase him (sorry Jaden) because his game's predicated on lowering his shoulder into you, reading your step rhythm, and then suddenly stopping or popping or swiveling. Literally the only way to counter is to not be moved easily.
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Overall, I think this overwhelming size, athleticism, and defensive instinct is what Nico's vision profiles as - and I get it.
He wants the team's ceiling dictated by its offense just like the two title favorites and sees an opportunity to exploit their defensive systems which were chiefly engineered for dismantling the 3 point hysteria.
Not saying it'll work this year, but the core vision I believe in at least in the short-term (like he said). A top 5 defense is a very fun, very frisky team regardless.
