How Embiid Inflated His 2023-24 Regular Season Stats for MVP
Originally posted to X on May 8, 2024
Contextual analysis of Joel Embiid’s games played in the 2024 regular NBA season
Part I: Insight Analysis
Seventeen of the thirty-nine regular season games he played this season were against playoff teams (46%). Wow! What an impressive outing, clearly he wasn't worried about his MVP campaign getting harmed nor embarrassed on national television by underperforming or seeing his team lose.
Here's where most folks typically stop and turn around. However, some interesting trends emerge if you look a bit closer…
Seven of the seventeen games he played against playoff teams (41%) happened to coincide with one of the top two opposing players (by win share) not playing. So in actuality, Embiid only played ten games this season against quality opponents when they were at full strength (26%). See for yourself which stars didn't play if you’d like to split hairs about how much the no-shows matter.
There are two primary drivers I’d like to spotlight here: (a) playing star-less opponents helps his team win games (which we all know matters significantly for MVP) and (b) dominating these high-competition (but crippled) matchups allowed Embiid to star on national broadcasts all while on shaky knees - all that was missing was a superman cape!
Twelve of the seventeen games he played against playoff teams were in Philadelphia (71%). This implication is pretty intuitive considering 76er fans are widely regarded as some of the most venomous, fervent fans in the NBA.
Last but not least, Embiid was fined $100k after the 76ers’ home matchup against OKC on April 12th for jumping into the game last-minute despite being officially listed out due to injury mere minutes after the announcement that Jalen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would sit. If the league has to intervene and assess penalties of this caliber, it’s irrefutable that Embiid seized the news to clandestinely slip into the game and attempt to inflate his regular season stats.
Part II: Thought Expansion
Joel Embiid is the most Trump-like figure of the NBA. Not just that his trolling antics get under much of the basketball world’s skin, but also in that nearly all of his fiercest supporters refuse to acknowledge evidence like the above of his schemes to inflate his performance indicators. These “stans” crave the simpy, oversimplified fairytale of him "beating the odds" against... what again exactly? His genetics? His owner’s poor judgment in co-stars? Who? Is it Jokic for robbing him of his MVPs by dominating the league without flopping like a dying giraffe with a free throw-dependent diet?
My assessment is he knows his body likely can’t sustain a deep playoff run resulting in him viewing the regular season as his postseason and the MVP as his title. This would explain not only being extra discriminatory in which games he chose to play, but his refusal to play Nikola Jokic in the mile-high city since 2019. This season, funny enough, he backed out at the last possible minute citing knee issues despite choosing to play against the Indiana Pacers (the NBA’s fastest, highest-rated offense) just two days prior. Everyone knew the MVP race would once again come down to the two of them - why not rest in advance to prove to the world he deserved the crown? Surely pummeling Jokic for the second time in a week would nail the coffin shut after the 76ers’ dominant home win shortly before (or at least more than scoring 70 points against the 22-win Spurs).
I believe Embiid knew he could get away with ducking losable matchups and picking opportune games to dominate for two reasons: (1) most NBA fans (and media for that matter) don’t carry a watchful enough eye or think strategically enough to spot and document his antics like I’ve done here and (b) the league almost always protects its star players - did anyone say a peep about his $100k fine after the fact? Or posit the possibility that he was employing other furtive strategies throughout the year? Seems to me like many media outlets and Twitter accounts missed the boat sadly.
Part III: Counter Arguments
#1: How does playing games with opposing stars sitting out inflate Embiid’s stats if most of them wouldn’t have been primary defenders on Embiid anyway?
There are numerous ways to impact a game besides scoring just like there are many dominoes that fall downstream once it’s known an opposing team's best or second-best player doesn't play:
(a) Again, team wins improve because Embiid, the 76ers' best player, plays against a weaker version of the opponent
(b) Embiid's on/off differential is inflated because when he doesn't play, his team is forced to play healthier teams shorthanded resulting in Embiid’s impact on the floor look astronomical
(c) Embiid's defensive metrics are inflated because he's blocking, stripping, and recovering loose balls from guys out of sync or put in positions they otherwise wouldn't be had their normal offensive system been intact with the starpower it’s relied on
(d) Embiid’s negative offensive indicators like bad pass turnovers are buoyed too due to opponents’ defensive schemes being tilted (especially relevant in that last OKC matchup given the Thunder led the league in steals, didn’t foul often, and notoriously swarmed slower bigs in and around the paint where Embiid likes to operate)
(e) Even if Embiid's typical primary defender played, one of his teammate’s isn’t which opens the door for more assists and other indirect impact stats such as fast break points (outlet passes, cross-matches in transition, etc.), points off turnovers, etc.
(f) It goes both ways too, upping the likelihood of defensive breakdowns due to overcompensating for the defensive weak spot its forced to manage and flimsier, less crisp chemistry
(g) Embiid and the 76ers’ psychological dominance is harder to snap out of without the galvanizing play of its stars who possess the polished talent to do so and likely have a deeper database to access from past matchups on Embiid and the 76ers’ tendencies
(h) Embiid simply doesn't have to be on the floor for long which adds to his lore-like persona across the NBA. There was a stretch this year where he averaged +35 points in about three quarters - how many folks care enough to double click on his competitions? Now how about check the box score to see who actually played in those games? Very few, which is exactly what he wants.
#2: How do you know Embiid was aware of all of these DNP’s ahead of time which underpins your main argument?
It’s a fair question, and the answer is I don’t - combing back through countless reports would require a wealth of time I don’t have. My instincts say most absences were locked in well before tipoff, as is standard especially for star players managing through the 82-game season, leaving Embiid to decide. Pat Bev even explicitly admitted Embiid schemed to play bad teams on his podcast in the spring. Since I can’t answer the question directly, I’ll instead respond back with two very simple questions:
(a) Do you honestly believe it’s a coincidence that nearly half of the games Embiid played against playoff teams they were missing one or two of their best players? Really?
(b) If so, how many games out of the total (seventeen) would it take for you to entertain the trend I’ve outlined? 10? 12? 14? As always, it’s up to the horse to drink.
