A Deeper Look at the “LA Laker Whistle”
Originally posted to X on April 21, 2024
I’m not arguing that the Los Angeles Lakers don't get special whistle treatment, but the extent to which folks attribute their free throw disparity to it is grotesquely overblown.
Short analysis to explain...
(1) First off, did you know Orlando took more total FTAs than LA this season? Maybe not the big-market bias you expected.
(2) Wouldn't you think Malone or Denver's FO would make a stink about unfair calls to the league if it was as egregious as folks want to believe? Or any FO for that matter.
(3) [real analysis] Lakers fixate on scoring at the rim more than anyone else. Scoring. We all know shooting fouls are called much more often other types. Rim. Consistently lots of contact. Burly men battling/posterizing each other.
Rim is not the same as paint. Proxy stats like paint touches, paint points, post-ups, etc. simply don't correlate with scoring/foul pressure the same.
Nuggets fans should understand this nuance better than anyone else. Jokic's office is in the paint (short-mid) - not the rim. Your friend who doesn't watch NBA could tell you his game should generate fewer FTs than Davis' (for example) based on where they mostly shoot from, the corresponding foul pressure in those areas, & sure embellishment of contact (though I'd argue LA usually is fouled on plays they think they deserve a whistle on).
Lakers FG frequency (FG%)
Rim: 2nd (1st)
Mid: 14th (24th)
3P: 28th (7th)
Dunks: 1st
Layups: 9th
Shot distance: 4th-shortest
Lakers literally live (and die) at the rim. Moreover? They live at the rim in transition, leading to even more whistles against unset defenses, cross matches, etc.
Lakers in transition context
Frequency: 4th
Pts+/poss: 3rd
Pts/play: 2nd
Pace (overall): 4th
If I were Ham & DLo struggles again shooting next game, I'd seriously consider trying out [Gabe/AR, Prince, Rui, Bron, AD] because of his defensive dead-weight vs. an already-bigger Nuggets team.
Nuggets FG frequency (FG%)
Rim: 4th (19th)
Mid: 8th (3rd)
3P: 30th (9th)
Nuggets similarly don't rely heavily on 3's, but they don't have to because Jokic is unstoppable in the short-mid range. But again, what's that mean for whistles? Typically fewer get generated that way.
Nuggets in putback context
Offensive reb%: 6th
Putback plays/miss: 3rd
Pts/miss: 3rd
Pts/100 putback plays: 20th
You're probably wondering about them being 4th in rim attempts too - what about that? I wanted to group that together with putbacks. Disclaimer: I don't have Synergy/Second Spectrum tracking data so can only speak for my eyes.
My hypothesis is that they have such high-quality attempts at the rim that teams opt not to foul them often.
Jokic's short-lob assists to AG, Braun, etc. are automatic baskets. Jokic's elite offensive rebounding catches defenses off-balance leading to clean putbacks. But that conflicts with the team’s low rim FG% (19th) which truthfully I don't understand. If someone can help explain, I'd appreciate it.
The conspiracy around the Lakers’ free throw disparity should be heavily "debunked" though. In all seriousness, I implore you to log/review fouls next game to assess how many "phantom" or "unfair" calls they receive. In the process, I implore you to overlay the styles of attack you see with the above statistical findings as well.
